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    Friday, October 12, 2012

    Election Update

    Last nights VP debate is over and while I felt Biden was effective and dominated the debate, the way he did it was so annoying, with the smirking and talking over and inappropriate smiling, I think it was pretty annoying to anyone who watched.

    The TV ratings are in, and it turns out that no one watched. They were down 20% from 2008. Clearly, there was no desire to see Biden again and I guess people aren't that curious about Paul Ryan.

    After Romney wiped the floor with Obama last week, in a hugely watched event, we saw the polls move significantly in his favor.

    I have some theories and since many of you follow me on the right, and I don't post much (follow me on twitter, @sleepywhiner) anymore, read close.

    Polls in September are notoriously bad. Plus, we had the media attempting to drag support for Romney down. If you followed the September polls, you saw a massive skewing of them to large Dem turnout models, akin to 2008.

    Clearly, turnout is going to be something more like 2004 or 2010. All you have to do is talk to people. Those white guilt voters are over it. They've seen Obama govern, and, like me, they have reached the conclusion that his administration is incompetent. I used to think there was a grand plan to Obama, but I have finally decided this administration really is a bunch of incompetent Chicago thugs.

    So, what happened? Were the Sep polls really wrong or did something change. Yes, and yes.

    If you read the internals in those polls, they all had massive warning signs for Obama. Right track/wrong track broke very badly for him. Independents broke very badly for him. His inability to ever crack 50% in favorability and in the horse race were out there for all to see.

    Yet, the media persisted in the summer to skew the variable part of these polls, the turnout model, to give the appearance of a close race. Why? You really don't need an answer, but Obama is their guy. They love him, they need him to win. He's them.

    Ultimately, though, these organizations have to protect their credibility. To continue with these models into October means they would be laughed at when the election doesn't break their way. Plus, like me, they know that most of the undecided voters aren't really paying attention until that first presidential debate. So, the media can continue their poll charade right up to that, in the hopes that Obama will knock one out of the park, then the fiction they have been portraying the last few months may actually come true, if he re-impresses those fence sitters.

    However, in one of the most watched presidential debates ever, Obama wildly let them down. Coming on the heels of his uninspiring and lame convention speech, should we have been surprised that his butt was handed to him by Romney?

    What the media was forced to admit after last week's debate was what most of us knew all along. Obama is simply not that good of an extemporaneous speaker. Sure, he can read a TelePrompTer, but, when faced with an actual opponent, unfiltered by the Obama spin machine or the lens of the press, he falters.

    Either way, the media is presented with a face saving opportunity. With the overwhelming Romney victory in the debate, the undecideds, who really just want to be assured that Romney is up to the job, can safely break for him. This enables the media to adjust their turnout models to much more realistic ones, and when that happens we see a much better picture of where the nation stands.

    We're sick of Obama. He sucks and his administration is incompetent, if not downright criminal (see Fast and Furious, Libya, and the green energy payoffs).

    Many Americans sense this and they just want at this point to know the other guys is not a monster. Does it help that Romney seems a sincere and capable man? You bet. He's the anti-Obama. All competence and optimism and adult.

    Look, we still have 2 debates. The next, in Town Hall format, will not really allow for much interaction between the two men. I hope Obama will get some tough questions and be forced to answer on Libya, which is a national disgrace and should result in some firings.

    Romney could still blow it, but he needs to continue looking presidential, something Obama never has.

    Anything can happen and the race is not over. But it's coming down to the end, and it doesn't look good for Obama.

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