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    Sunday, October 13, 2013

    Obamacare: Here to Stay (a while)

    In light of the recent "opening" of Obamacare's exchanges, I have much to say.

    Our personal experience with this law is one I think many across the nation will be feeling, and it's emblematic of the lies told personally by this president to get this POS law passed.  Of course, many people are discovering that "You can keep your doctor (or plan), if you like them," was an outright lie, and "The average American will see their premiums reduced by $2500" was an outright lie, and "Birth control will be free" is an outright lie (it's free under certain conditions),  

    Now that the law is written and the regulations are in place, and the exchanges (nominally) operating, the opposition's best strategy is to let this thing impact Americans.  While I appreciated Ted Cruz's attempts to force repeal of the law, it should have ended as an education effort with some CR to fund the government in place.  We are not going to repeal this law without a Republican president and Senate, and those who think we can are imbeciles.  During a week when we should have been issuing press releases solely about the horrible nature of the rollout and the negative consequences on Americans, we instead were subjected to the shutdown.  

    The Dems have done their own calculus on this one,  it should be obvious to anyone with a pulse that they have decided that while they are being hurt, the GOP is getting hurt worse, and the added benefit is that there is an internecine struggle between Tea Partiers and mainstream Republicans that threatens to impact Senate control in 2014.  I realize that the Tea Party created tremendous momentum in 2010 and returned the House to the GOP! but it also cost the GOP Senate control that year with choices like Sharon Angle, Cnristine O'Donnell, and Linda McMahon.  

    With that history in mind, let's accept that until at least the legislative branch is firmly in our control, no effort to repeal Obamacare will succeed.  It took anti-abortion foes 20 years to realize what the Left has always known - that you chip away at institutions, one stone at a time.  That strategy is leading to the gradual elimination of the abortion-on-demand industry and it will also need to be followed with Obamacare.  

    Making the chipping easier will be the law itself.  People are going to hate this law.  The rate increases, the bureaucratic bungling, the taxes, will all lead to widespread dissatisfaction.  The people will demand fixes, and when we're fixing it, vice killing it (usually portrayed as killing it with no alternative) the Left will have little choice but to go along.

    Which leads me to the awful performance of the exchanges.  I know a thing or two about the rollout of large IT projects.  This one has truly been awful.  No self-repecting company would have gone to market with this garbage.  However, the government has near unlimited financial resources to bear, so if Obamacare opponents think this will be the death knell for the program, they are wrong.  Eventually, the exchanges will work.  Yes,  their performance is emblematice of the scope of this thing and the administration's generall incompetence, and they make great objects of ridicule, but they will eventually work.

    What won't work is Obamacare if sufficient numbers of young people do not sign up and pay inflated premiums.  And, recall, anything will seem inflated when you had been paying $0.  This will be the true test, and it's the one I think will fail. 

    You can read older posts on my thoughts on what will work, but in general it involves decoupling insurance and employment.

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