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    Thursday, February 26, 2009

    Inside DialIdol.com's numbers

    Looking at the dialidol.com predictions for tonight's 3 finalists, they are predicting the top male as Adam Lambert and the top female as Allison Iraheta.  While Lambert makes me want to puke, I know he's the pimped-out choice from the judges and his placement in the 12 hole last night showed everyone on the Idol set was expecting him to succeed. 
    The more interesting thing is the next one.  It's very close between Matt Giraud and Jesse Langseth, with DialIdol giving just an edge to Matt. 
    This is all based on DialIdol's scoring mechanism, which, I may point out, correctly predicted last week's finalists.
    If you look beyond the dialidol score, to the raw numbers that dialidol has, you can see that choosing Lambert and Iraheta is still a no brainer (especially for Iraheta, who has a runaway lead over Megan Corkrey, with a sizable busy percentage number). While Nick Mitchell is much closer to Lambert in raw numbers of vote attempts, his busy percentage is near nil, indicating a much broader base of support for Lambert and why Mitchell's #5 of the guys in the dialidol score.
    Looking at those raw votes and busy percentages, it is kind of hard to understand why dialidol has Giraud ahead of Kris Allen.  Both had the same busy percentage, with Allen getting 2x as many raw votes as Giraud.  Yet in the dialidol scoring, Allen finishes behind Matt Breitzke.  The same here is true of the Corkrey/Langseth deal.  Corkrey 2x votes, 2x busy, but dialidol putting Langseth number 2.
    I should point out that last week, we didn't see this phenomena with Michael Sarver and Anoop Desai.  While Anoop garnered nearly 80% more raw votes than Sarver, his busy percentage was much, much less. Thus, dialidol vaults Sarver ahead of Anoop, and, boom they are right.
    But, this week's phenomena is slightly different.  I think that 3rd slot is really a tough one to call.  It could go to Corkrey, Langseth, Allen, Giraud, Breitzke, or Mitchell, but I wouldn't bet against dialidol.com.  This is statistical analysis, and they have been using this methodology for 8 seasons and have been able to refine it that whole time.
    Stay tuned...

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