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    Thursday, March 12, 2009

    Idol, buh bye 2 of you, and the twist revealed

    Caution: Spoiler below, so if you haven't watched it, don't read.

    First, the twist, which is revealed as a save by the judges. Ryan explains that the judges get one chance to reverse America's vote, if they believe someone has been unjustly eliminated, and they agree unanimously. They can use it just once, and it does not come into play after the final 5. And, if they save someone, it means 2 will be eliminated the next week, and it only saves that contestant for one week.

    Ryan says it could have saved someone like Daughtry or Jennifer Hudson,or Michael Johns. While under these rules it could have saved Johns or Hudson, Daughtry was in the final 4, so it couldn't have saved him.

    Anyway, on with the show, this is it. As I predicted in this space last night, Jasmine and Jorge were the bottom feeders, and the judges refused to spare them.

    While Ryan tried to convince us the judges would use the time the singers sang their song again to "deliberate," does anyone not believe that they already know the results and have already "deliberated?" All one had to see to confirm this was Paula dancing while Jorge resang his song. Clearly, Randy and Simon were deliberating who was going to tell Jorge "no." And, clearly, Simon relished it.

    Anywho, nothing unexpected here. Later Jasmine, and Jorge, you really didn't deserve to be in the finals anyway.

    end...

    Wednesday, March 11, 2009

    Idol Tonight, the top 13 perform

    Well, I have to admit, for an opening night, it was pretty good. Usually, you can count on about 1/2 the performances, uhhhh, sucking.

    Tonight, though, the contestants were all quite good, and the producers promise us some kind of twist in tomorrow night's show, in addition to seeing 2 contestants disappear. Poof!

    Tonight was Michael Jackson night, so let's go through who is safe:
    1. Danny Gokey - great, as expected
    2. Lil Rounds - also great
    3. Adam Lambert - i liked the performance, I hate him
    4. Alexis Grace (with the pimp spot) - solid, and a popular choice
    5. Michael Sarver - also solid, and popular
    6. Anoop Desai - crap performance (tell it, Simon!), but he's popular
    7. Scott McIntyre - boring, but he's also popular

    Who is in danger?
    1. Jasmine Murray - just lost in the crowd
    2. Jorge Nunez - awful
    The rest were so-so, but I think they'll survive. I will admit, I peeked at dialidol.com, and after East Coast voting, there is a suprising 12th place, and that's Allison Iraheta, who I really like as the rocker chick. But, that appeal has never carried any girl very far, and she doesn't have the looks of previous rockers, but she does have the voice.

    Maybe the West will be kinder to Allison. Also in danger on dialidol, is Kris Allen. But, I will remind, that in his week of 12, dial idol underestimated his vote totals. It also underestimated Jorge, so, perhaps Allison and Jasmine should be really worried.

    Ok, I wish Megan didn't have the big Carly tattoo. She'd be really hot, like her mom. I also wish she could sing and dance, so votefortheworst.com has adopted her. Can they save her? I hope so, because I believe, like them, that she has the potential to be a huge train wreck!

    What's the twist for tomorrow? Some think the judges may be picking the losers. I think the lowest vote getter is going home, then the judges are going to pick from the next two. I hope that is the case, because I think Jorge is going to finish last. That may save Allison, as the judges would have to off their Hollywood fave, Jasmine, who has yet to show me anything in live performances.

    end...

    Thursday, March 5, 2009

    The Top 12 finalized. Oops, 13

    Tonight on Idol we're live blogging via DVR. We're about 20 minutes behind, so you may know the results before we do.

    My prediction, Anoop Desai (unless he sucks) and 2 girls, making it 7/5 boys/girls in the final 12.

    Through Von Smith so far, and he's definitely out.
    • Matt Giraud - an outside chance now
    • Jesse Langseth - they like her
    • Judges loved Megan Corkrey, she's in.
    • Von Smith - no.
    • Jasmine Murray - my impression is they want her in, and they mostly tried to praise her. Based on Simon's comments, she's in.
    • Ricky Braddy - dangerous song choice with Superstition. Girls loved him. Simon is throwing water on it. As does Randy.
    • Tatiana - Please. I wish she was just gone. I don't love you, Tatiana. Please fall on your face singing Whitney. Just shut up. I think at least a couple of them are waiting to say they don't like her. Simon gives much grief for singing the song again. He hates that, too. So does Randy and Kara. It's a no.
    • Anoop - My Perogative - Personally, I like the song, I don't think he did as much with it as he ciuld have, but he's very popular with the crowd, and should be in top 12. Simon says some gibberish about people liking him. They want him.
    Now the picks -
    • Jasmine - Yes, they really like her.
    • Ricky - no
    • Megan - yes, they really like her, too.
    • Tatiana - no
    • Our DVR stopped as the show ran late (thank you drama queen Tatiana).
    • Anyway, checking Ricky.org, we see that Jesse Langseth did not make it, but Matt Giraud, and Anoop Desai did!
    Go Anoop!!


    end..
    ...

    Wednesday, March 4, 2009

    Idol. Round 3 and the judges final 8 square off

    Tonight on American Idol, we were not surprised that Scott McIntyre, Lil Rounds, and even Jorge Nunez made it into the final 12.

    What surprised, however, were a couple of the judges choices for the final 8 to sing off tomorrow.

    Were we really surprised by Megan Corkrey, Anoop Desai, Matt Giraud, Jesse Langseth, and Ricky Braddy. If you look at this post, and this post, you will see we had them pegged as the top 5.

    While we HATE Tatiana, we knew the judges liked her, so she's not a massive shocker to us. Jasmine Murray must have been very good in Hollywood, because she was very forgettable in her top 36 performance. Von Smith would have been one of our choices as well, but doubtful that we would have put him ahead of Ju'Not Joyner. However, we are happy with this choice.

    We would have taken Kendall Beard ahead of Jasmine or Tatiana, and Ju'Not ahead of Von, but, we can't complain too much.

    We still think Anoop, Megan, and Jesse or Matt will emerge from this group. Unless Anoop falls on his face tomorrow, expect him to make it. And, since we're short on girls, I expect 2 girls to go ahead.

    We will see tomorrow night!!

    end...
    ....

    Tuesday, March 3, 2009

    American Idol, Final 12 - UPDATED!

    Tonight's final 12 is the easiest to choose the boy and girl.

    Lil Rounds was far and away the best tonight, and Scott McIntyre is going to sail through from the guys.

    3rd is much harder to figure out. In early dialidol.com voting, Jorge Nunez is narrowly ahead of Felicia Barton, but, I don't think Felicia has the legs to survive the West Coast feed. Ju'Not Joyner is a close 3rd to Jorge as I write this, and they both lead Felicia, so, I'd say we're looking at 2 guys again. Which will mean, 6 guys, 3 girls chosen by America. Will the judges, in their final choices, balance it to 6/6 by just choosing girls?

    We think not here at the AI braintrust, since we think Anoop is a dead-lock cinch for the final 12. We also think Megan Corkrey is pretty much a lock, too. So, that is going to leave only 1 slot from the rest.

    We'll see tomorrow who the judges have to choose from for their picks, and Thursday, we'll get a special Idol to see those final performances and their picks.


    Ok, in an update - my prediction for the final 3:
    Danny Gokey
    Lil Rounds
    Scott McIntyre


    end..
    ...

    Monday, March 2, 2009

    Flying car, submerging submarine. Audi has James Bond's next car.

    Check out this cool rendition of the future of automobiles...

    It's a flying car/submarine, and while it is just a concept, I like it.


    end...
    ...

    Sunday, March 1, 2009

    Courtney Speaks on Porkulus

    Joe Courtney (D-Electric Boat), has an interesting Op-Ed in the New London Day today, defending the Porkulus package just signed into law by President Obama.

    Rep. Courtney must have been reading some of my old posts, because his argument is at least partially correct.

    When he says, "Shipyard workers at Electric Boat building nuclear submarines, assembly line workers constructing Blackhawk helicopters in Stratford, and factory workers in East Hartford manufacturing F-22 aircraft engines all get their paychecks because their primary customer - the U.S. government - spends taxpayer dollars to buy their products," he is singing my song. He is right. This kind of government spending focuses on the legitimate role of government, national defense, and these kinds of jobs are good, high paying jobs requiring highly skilled workers, with spin-offs that benefit consumers in all sorts of other idustries beyond national defense.

    I think I can even agree with him that some Federal spending on science research at the National Science Foundation can even be justified.

    But, the Congressman fails to point out in his Op-Ed that the porkulus provides no funds for additional spending on any of these weapons systems that are so important to his state (CT). In fact, if Obama eventually has his way, we can be certain that the ballooning deficit is going to be used as an excuse for cuts in defense spending. Since the Virginia class is so important to Connecticut's economy, what will he be saying when Obama seeks to slash Virginia spending to 1 sub per year from the current 2? Will he be so enamored of Obama then?

    Perhaps then, we'll hear him extolling the virtues of these great jobs submarine production brings, vice the nationalization of health care, or any of Obama's other great projects.

    I applaud Rep. Courtney for opposing the original $750B bailout of banks. He made the right call there, and he is what passes for a moderate, Northeastern Democrat, so, on the whole, I expect he's not doing a bad job for his constituents.

    But, remember, Congressman, that this money is OUR money. To support the increased Medicaid, Medicare, school spending, and everything else, someone else has to have their money confiscated or the Feds have to borrow it, or, print it. Maybe option 1 can be justified, but options 2 and 3 are not ideal, and have long-term consequences that stand to be very painful some day, for a generation not yet fully cognizant of those consequences.

    Democrats used to justify everything they did by saying "Do it for the children." Now the mantra seems to be "Do it to the children."

    Thanks!


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    end
    ...

    Getting the facts out on the Gregg "Pay for Play" Scheme.

    Rob's Blog is at it again with what I will characterize as blogging that is either intentionally misleading, willfully ignorant, or lazy. Since Rob's a left-wing blogger, I expect Dan Rather is a hero and he's just imitating the modus operandi of the left wing (aka Mainstream) media.

    In this post, Rob claims that Judd Gregg was involved in some kind of Blago-like pay-for-play scheme for his own Senate seat, would he have joined the Obama cabinet.

    In his post, Rob fails to cite the article he sourced (it's here), and he decided to cherry pick this quote from the article, to back up his contention. I guess this is the blogosphere, and we all have our individual axes to grind, but, it is customary, if you're going to quote from an article, to link to it, so that your readers can see what you left out. I suppose if the whole thing is inconvenient, why bother, but, well, you know...

    Anyway, the cherry-picked quote is:

    "Besides its activities at Pease, Two International also develops properties elsewhere in Portsmouth, recently selling a $1 million-plus condominium at its One Harbor Place development to J. Bonnie Newman, Judd Gregg's former chief of staff. Gregg agreed to become commerce secretary if the Democratic New Hampshire governor named her to succeed him."

    While I freely admit Gregg has probably been trying to increase the value of property he is invested in (with his brother), I can find nothing in the AP article to indicate he has a personal stake in Two International, which owned the building his former COS bought a condo in. His brother, yes. Judd Gregg, no.

    Bonnie Newman is Gregg's former COS and her story on the condo purchase is:

    "'We [her and Gregg's brother, Cyrus, who is also active in NH GOP politics] see one another on a pretty regular basis socially, so I think I may have said, `Let me know what you're doing with the apartments. I could be interested.' She used to have an office in the building, and it was well-known around Portsmouth that one floor was being converted to condos, she said. Newman negotiated the purchase through the fall and said she signed the purchase agreement in November, long before there was any indication Judd Gregg might be a Cabinet pick."

    I don't know how there could have been a pay before there was anything in play.

    end...
    ...

    Saturday, February 28, 2009

    Health Care - Why Hard Cases Make Bad Case Law

    William F. Buckley used to like to say that "Hard cases make bad case law" as a way to counter arguments that Liberals usually used to explain why their particular choices needed to be enacted into law.

    These usually involve some hard luck sob story that is designed to stir people to say "We should do something about that." The Conservative typically has a difficult time refuting these things, focused as we tend to be on the larger picture. The reality is the consequences of setting policy based on the needs of the few usually results in unintended consequences in regards to the needs of the many.

    Such is the case of Pamela Rinchich, who Rob (of The Online Magazine formerly known as Rob's Blog) highlights today (guess this story ran on CNN this week).

    While the story says her case is "not unique" it provides us no numbers to back this up, and the Families USA group who is pushing this story does not give us any numbers either.

    But, applying a little Radcon math to it, we can make some assumptions - let's assume that about 92% of Americans who want to work today are employed, and that of those 92%, all of them have either employer-provided health coverage, or can provide it themselves through a private policy (it's Radcon math, y'all, so unless you can improve the assumption with some actual numbers, I am going with it). That leaves the 8% of Americans who are now unemployed. The latest number who are drawing unemployment benefits is about 7 million Americans. Again, the number is higher for all unemployed, but let's limit our discussion to those drawing unemployment benefits, as they would be the one's who fall into Ms. Rinchich's scenario.

    Let's assume all of them lost their employer-provided health insurance with their jobs and went the COBRA route. Of those 7M, how many need to use their COBRA benefits for the 18 months for something other than routine medical care? About .5% of Americans will be diagnosed with cancer each year, and let's assume that the vast majority of them are in retirement, say 50% are, so they are ineligible for our survey. That means about .25% of people who fall into the "employment eligible" group have cancer. Let's multiply by 10 to make that number account for other expensive diseases, and we'll get to 2.5%. So, using very crude radcon math, we're looking about 150,000 people who fall into Ms. Rinchich's scenario. Of those, we can expect that some number of them will be covered completely under the COBRA scenario, and eventually find work again. Since COBRA benefits can be carried for 18 months, let's assume that of that 8% unemployed, half of them find work in time to resume their medical benefits. That cuts the number down to 75,000. So, that's my estimate of the number of people who fall into Ms. Rinchich's category.

    Certainly 75,000 of anything does not make it unique, so, I agree that her situation is not unique. But, is it worthy of radically altering our entire health care system, which seems to work just fine for the 260M or so of covered people? Hard cases make for bad case law.

    Since Rob cherry picked the article, I have some more questions that the article didn't answer:
    • Ms. Rinchich is now married. Is she not covered under her husband's health plan? Is he unemployed, too? Is it a pre-existing condition for her that they won't cover her? (Seems given the political persuasion of CNN, this would be another chance to bash the current system, so I assume this is not the case).
    • The story says she owes $268 dollars to her cancer doctor. Can she NOT come up with $268? Is there no United Way where she lives? No church's or other charities?
    • Has she run out of money to pay anything? Does her husband have no money? She was laid off in March 2008. Under COBRA, she would have 18 months of coverage at her expense, but, less than 5 months later (Honeywell covered her through September), she has quit paying the premiums, apparently. Why? The article leaves us to wonder. My suspicion is she elected not to pay for her COBRA coverage, which probably she was eligible for in September, when her Honeywell severance package likely expired in September.
    What Rob doesn't tell us is that the just-passed Stimulus package includes a provision where the government will pick up 65% of COBRA premiums as part of the unemployment package. So, for people in her situation, there is already some relief.

    That doesn't answer the problem. We have a problem with coverage in this country. The government just isn't the answer.

    See my previous post on this for more.


    end...

    Truth in Budgeting. A little.

    This week, we got a view of the Federal Budget, and the budgeting process, as it will be practiced by Obama.

    Now that the stimulus package has passed, and, apparently, with it, the threat of another Great Depression, we see the Obama administration has now become quite bullish on the economy, which they tout in their 2010 budget laughingly titled (I kid you not), "The New Era of Responsibility."

    Pretty funny, eh. The administration that just gave us $800B of deficit spending, on top of a Democrat- authored $700B "bailout," topped by a $400B Omnibus Spending Bill, is now proposing to reduce the deficit (they have created) by half by 2013, through "spending" cuts. Trouble is, they project ahead spending on the war in Iraq to continue as it is today, then cut that, and count it as a spending cut, then, they layer on $1T in tax hikes on anyone making over $250k/year and call that a spending cut, then institute a "cap and trade" scam to control greenhouse emissions and count the proposed revenues from that as a spending cut.

    From Peter Orzsag: "All told, there's $2 trillion in deficit reduction contained in this budget, roughly a trillion dollars in reduced spending compared to the current policy path that we are on [compared to the current policy path we're on - the Iraq War], and roughly a trillion dollars in additional revenue compared to the current path that we were on [tax increases, not yet enacted]."

    Also in this budget, are some pretty rosy assumptions about GDP growth in the next few years. For 2010 (next year) they are predicting 3.6% GDP growth, and over 4.0% for 2011-2013. Those rosy predictions help them get to the 1/2 deficit reduction, and are unlikely to come true. Those predictions are about double the average for the last 2o years, and approach rates of the late Clinton years (of course, they are below the rates achieved during the Reagan years, so, maybe we can give them some credence).

    I hope that the economy rebounds as this administration hopes, too. But, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan did not bind the economy with a $1.2T spending package, massive tax increases on the wealthy (history lesson - Clinton lowered cap gains taxes after he raised the income tax rates), huge increases in spending on health care, and a massive cap and spend tax increase scheme, and those are just the things I can remember.

    It is what it is. Clearly, this guy's spending priorities would not be mine. On the Hill, it's going to be business as usual with earmarks and pork projects, every industry in this country is in danger of being nationalized, and we're looking at social policy that leads to the further breakdown of the family and the American identity.

    Oh well...


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    end
    ...

    Friday, February 27, 2009

    Jay's Reply to Rob - plenty of corrupt D's to go around:UPDATE

    In an updated question - since it is very likely that had Gregg not passed on the Commerce Sec'y job, he would be confirmed by now, what do we think the chances are that the current story about his real estate dealings (all, apparently, legal and aboveboard) would have come out with him as a member of the Appointed One's Cabinet?

    That's right. Zero.

    Original Post below:

    Since "Rob's Blog" can't accept comments right now, here is my reply to his post on Judd Gregg being a crook:

    • Tim Geithner - Tax Cheat
    • Bill Richardson - Tax Cheat
    • Tom Daschle - Tax Cheat
    • Nancy Killefer - Just what is a "Chief Performance Officer" anyway?
    • Blago - Creep, liar, shakedown artist
    • Roland Burris - Liar
    • Frank Murtha - traitor and pork merchant
    • Charlie Rangel - tax cheat
    • Harry Reid - real estate cheat (must run in the Senate?)
    • Al Sharpton - convicted liar and race baiter (not that there's anything wrong with that)
    • Jesse Jackson - shakedown artist
    • William Jefferson - thief
    • William Jefferson Clinton - cretin and serial pardoner
    • Dan Rostenkowski - thief
    • Ted Kennedy - murderer (at the least manslaughterer)
    • Robert Byrd - Klansman
    And those are just the one's I can list from memory in about 15 seconds. How about with some research:
    • Kwame Kilpatrick - Detroit Mayor
    • Barney Frank (ok, it was his "boyfriend"running the prostitution ring out of Barney's place)
    • Sheila Dixon - Baltimore mayor
    • Bill Campbell - Atlanta mayor
    • Marion Barry - DC Mayor (what is it with Dem mayors of large, majority-black, cities?)
    • James Traficant - The hair couldn't keep him out of jail
    • Edward Meszvinsky
    • Hillary Clinton (cattle futurist, Whitewater scammer, Travel Office firer)
    • Don Siegelman - bribery
    • Guy Tucker - Gov. of Arkansas; fraud
    • Kent Conrad - Shady real estate sweetheart deal
    • Chris Dodd - Senator from Countrywide
    • Al Gore - Buddhist temple shakedown artist; Global Warming Alarmist; d-bag
    • Eric Holder - Assisted Clinton's in pardoning Marc Rich and FALN terrorists
    • Tim Mahoney - Florida rep. paying off his girlfriend
    • Sandy Berger - traitor
    • Robert Torricelli - thief
    • James McGreevey - creepy NJ governor
    • Mel Reynolds - Child molester
    • Alcee Hastings - impeached federal judge, found his home as a Congressman!
    • Hazel O'Leary, Henry Cisneros - Clinton appointees who were corrupt
    and finally, Tony Rezko's good pal and another "smart" real estate investor:
    • Barack Obama
    Anyway, this is not to say Republicans are squeaky clean. They are not. But to act like only Republicans are corrupt is the height of hypocrisy. Get over yourself Rob, you're not half as smart as you want to be.

    end...
    ...

    Thursday, February 26, 2009

    Idol Results, 2nd 3

    Updated at 10pm:

    As I semi-predicted, Kris Allen managed to make it to the final 12. He's this season's 13-year old's heartthrob, replacing David Archuleta. Of course, Allison and Adam Lambert made it as well.

    The producers left us with Adam and Nick to duke it out in the end. But, while we had to get Adam, we are no longer left with Nick, so, there is some justice. Then, we had to listen to Adam screech Satisfaction.

    Since the judges may take a few people from this group in there sing-off on two weeks, here's who I think they may take:

    1. Megan Corkrey - near 100% probability
    2. Matt Giraud - about 90% probability
    3. Jesse Langseth - 75% chance
    4. Mishavonna Barton - 30% chance
    No one else rates.

    end..
    ..

    Inside DialIdol.com's numbers

    Looking at the dialidol.com predictions for tonight's 3 finalists, they are predicting the top male as Adam Lambert and the top female as Allison Iraheta.  While Lambert makes me want to puke, I know he's the pimped-out choice from the judges and his placement in the 12 hole last night showed everyone on the Idol set was expecting him to succeed. 
     
    The more interesting thing is the next one.  It's very close between Matt Giraud and Jesse Langseth, with DialIdol giving just an edge to Matt. 
     
    This is all based on DialIdol's scoring mechanism, which, I may point out, correctly predicted last week's finalists.
     
    If you look beyond the dialidol score, to the raw numbers that dialidol has, you can see that choosing Lambert and Iraheta is still a no brainer (especially for Iraheta, who has a runaway lead over Megan Corkrey, with a sizable busy percentage number). While Nick Mitchell is much closer to Lambert in raw numbers of vote attempts, his busy percentage is near nil, indicating a much broader base of support for Lambert and why Mitchell's #5 of the guys in the dialidol score.
     
    Looking at those raw votes and busy percentages, it is kind of hard to understand why dialidol has Giraud ahead of Kris Allen.  Both had the same busy percentage, with Allen getting 2x as many raw votes as Giraud.  Yet in the dialidol scoring, Allen finishes behind Matt Breitzke.  The same here is true of the Corkrey/Langseth deal.  Corkrey 2x votes, 2x busy, but dialidol putting Langseth number 2.
     
    I should point out that last week, we didn't see this phenomena with Michael Sarver and Anoop Desai.  While Anoop garnered nearly 80% more raw votes than Sarver, his busy percentage was much, much less. Thus, dialidol vaults Sarver ahead of Anoop, and, boom they are right.
     
    But, this week's phenomena is slightly different.  I think that 3rd slot is really a tough one to call.  It could go to Corkrey, Langseth, Allen, Giraud, Breitzke, or Mitchell, but I wouldn't bet against dialidol.com.  This is statistical analysis, and they have been using this methodology for 8 seasons and have been able to refine it that whole time.
     
    Stay tuned...
     
    end... 
     
     

    Idol, the 2nd 12

    Tonight was week 2 of the final 36 on Idol.

    I must admit, I flew through it tonight, but, I hate Adam Lambert. I hope he doesn't make it with America, but, the judges want him in the final 12, and they'll get a choice this year.

    But, of the others, Allison Iraheta, and Megan Corkrey were good. Jesse Langseth has an interesting voice.

    So, we will see.

    Perhaps Kris Allen will break through. After East Coast voting, the insufferable Adam Lambert is in the lead, with Matt Giraud second of the men. Allison is well in front of the girls, with Jesse Langseth (who's voice, but not expressions) I like.

    Let's see tomorrow what happens after West Coast voting.

    And, finally, Karl Rove is following me on Twitter! Am I awesome, or what!

    end...

    Sunday, February 22, 2009

    Congrats to Phil, A pox on Obama

    Congrats to Phil Mickelson, who had a big lead today, then blew it, then came back to win at the Northern Trust Open in L.A. Look out Phil and the rest of you golfers, Tiger is coming back, so you're all done.

    In other news, the Obama administration this week is going to hold a "Fiscal Responsibility Summit."

    No, I'm not kidding. Their idea of fiscal responsibility includes higher taxes on "the rich" and higher corporate taxes, too. This in the middle of our worst recession since 1979. They will do this by allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire in 2010. They say only those who had their marginal rates reduced from 39% back in 2002 will suffer. Seeing how they let Nancy Pelosi write the "stimulus" bill, is there any doubt that this time, too, we will see those entire tax cuts rescinded, which will mean higher tax payments for every single American who pays income taxes.

    Since only about 50% pay income taxes anymore, that'll be politically palatable to them.

    So, if you're one of those 50%, prepare to be screwed yet again by the messiah.

    end...

    Thursday, February 19, 2009

    Idol: The First Three

    Last night on American Idol, the first three of 12 finalists were chosen by America voting.

    In no real surprise, Danny Gokey, Michael Sarver, and Alexis Grace (who, amazingly does not yet have any fan sites on Facebook) were chosen. They all sang well and deserved it. Dialidol.com correctly predicted the top three, and they were my choice as well.

    The only real question was going to be whether Anoop Desai could edge out Sarver. Unfortunately (for him), the answer was no.

    I thought the decision to place Sarver/Desai together so early in the show after announcing Alexis as one of the final three was pretty poor planning on the Idol producers part. Everyone who watched the show knew that Gokey was going to make the final three. His lead on dialidol.com was so massive and his status as early favorite so ingrained, the rest of the contestants had to know they were doomed. However, the AI producers clearly wanted to give him the pimp closing-the-show spot. Although I find Tatiana Del Toro quite annoying, even she knew when she was paired with Gokey at the end that it was over for her. Not even votefortheworst.com could save her (let's see how much enthusiasm they can gen up for Normun Gentul next week!).

    If I have the rules correct, the judges will get to choose up to 10 contestants to compete in week 4 in a "wild card" round. I believe the judges will choose the top 3 from that round to go with the 9 chosen by us.

    So, with that in mind, my predictions for people from this round who will make it into the Wild Card round:
    1. Anoop Desai - 95% chance
    2. Ricky Braddy - 75% chance
    3. Tatiana Del Toro - 50% chance
    4. Anne Marie Broshkevitch - 30% chance
    All the rest, I put at 0%, as they all sucked. I'm sorry, Jackie Tohn, if you gave yourself a "91" for Tuesday's performance, it just shows how "Tohn Deaf" you are. Simon is right, you are a "clown."

    What do YOU think? Did America get it right? Who should the judges reconsider from this group?

    end...

    Wednesday, February 18, 2009

    FW: Comment on Comment By Jane's On UK / France Submarine Collision

     

    Editor Jane’s Fighting Ships, Commodore Stephen Saunders, (retired), explained, “The reported collision between HMS Vanguard and Le Triomphant in early February is a very serious incident.  As far as I am aware, it is the first time that the submarines of two friendly nations have been involved in such an accident. In this case, both submarines appear to have been on ‘deterrent patrol’ or on passage to or from patrol areas. Both UK and France have operated a Continuous at Sea Deterrence posture for many years.”

     

    Saunders continued, “There seem to be three main issues, firstly, procedurally there is a NATO waterspace management organisation, a sort of air-traffic control underwater, which enables national submarine operators to ‘deconflict’ their submarine operations. Submarine operations tend to be sensitive with the whereabouts of ballistic-missile submarines the most sensitive of all, but I would have thought it possible to at least arrange to be in different parts of the ocean without compromising operational security. I am unsure to what extent France participates in this scheme. France has not been a member of the NATO military structure since the 1960s but I was under the impression that a there is some liaison on these matters.”

     

    My comment: "waterspace management" is the wrong term, but, why deal with semantics here. I don't know how the Brits and French operate, but, for us, patrol areas for BN's are typically not shared with anyone, except the ship itself, and STRATCOM back in my day knew what patrol areas you had assigned (they assigned them), but they didn't know where the CO chose to operate within those areas.  The SSBN would receive every other non-deterrent patrolling submarine's subnote and it was the SSBN's responsibility to stay clear of those. However, we wouldn't have had any info on even a US SSBN's patrol areas, much less a French or Brit SSBN.  In the case of the US SSBN's, it was STRATCOM's responsibility to deconflict when they issued the water.  We may have shared some of this info at the STRATCOM level with the Brits, but I seriously doubt we ever did with the French, and I doubt the Brits and French shared it, either (well, obviously, they don't even today).

     

    “Secondly, why didn’t the submarines detect each other? The modus-operandi of most submarines, particularly ballistic-missile submarines, is to operate stealthily and to proceed undetected. This means operating passively and therefore not transmitting on sonar and making as little noise as possible. A great deal of technical effort has gone into making submarines very quiet by reduction of machinery noise for example. While in parallel much effort has gone into improving the capability of sonars to detect other submarines, detection was clearly made too late or not at all in this case.”

     

    My Comment: Pretty clearly a modern SSBN going 3-5 knots is hard to detect.

     

    “And finally bad luck, even if two submarines do find themselves in the same area, it is still bad luck to end up in the same place at the same depth and run into each other.”

     

    My Comment: No kidding. My guess is both these guys use a trailing wire to stay in comms, and that likely puts them at basically the same depth.  Thus, all they need is to be in the same geo position.  Still, big ocean, little submarine didn't work this time.

     

    It is worth noting that submarines are robustly built. USS San Francisco ran into an underwater seamount at high speed in 2005 and survived. In today’s case, two large submarines hit each other, probably at low speed, and the damage, whilst embarrassing, can be repaired.

     

    Saunders concluded, “No doubt there are a number of technical issues to be investigated, but the root of the problem appears to be procedural. These submarines should not have been in the same place at the same time.”

     

    My comment: My guess is the problem here is the French.

     

    end...

     

    Saturday, February 14, 2009

    Weekend Tidbits

    Kind of old, Dear Readers, but, please read this Ann Coulter interview with Right Wing News.

    If, like me, you find Islam to be something less than a religion of peace, you won't be surprised by this occurance.

    Gateway Pundit always has great coverage on his blog. He provides this link of Afghan President Hamid Karzai dressing down our new president.

    My Congressman, Rep. Tom Price, chair of the Republican Study Committee, has started reading the Porkulus bill. Michelle Malkin reports.

    Not a moment too soon, the Obama administration is shifting it's focus to the deficit (stop laughing). Read the linked WSJ article, and mark my words, this is going to be used as the excuse not to renew the Bush tax cuts in 2010 and for more reductions in defense spending.

    Sadly, ice is the likely cuplrit in the Buffalo plane crash. My guess is when all is said and done, pilot error will play a part. When the NTSB completes its analysis of the USAir Hudson River landing and this accident, those of us travelling by air are going to have to ask ourselves if we're safe when we step onto those commuter planes.

    Jay's Commentary Today
    Finally, I know many LIberals like to live in the fantasy land that informs them that FDR and his socialist agenda known as "The New Deal" ended the great depression, but, most educated people know that the advent of WW2 and the massive spending on military weapons systems, and the technological advances of war, coupled with the massive pent-up demand from 16 years of depression and war, saw the return of economic good times post-war. For these Libs, spending on their silly projects (as embodied in the Porkulus Bill) will get us out of the current funk, since it's spending on "something." Something, to them, is better than nothing.

    I have advocated for increased defense spending, since it actually furthers national goals, restores national pride, can be done quickly, is money spent in the U.S. and employs highly skilled craftsmen and engineers. Instead, Liberals will pay for their mistake (Porkulus) on the backs of the defense industry.

    We will all be the worse off for it.

    This week was a sad week for this country. Monday could mark the death knell for our American system as President B.H. Obama signs the worst bill in my adult life into law.

    end...
    ...

    Thursday, February 12, 2009

    American Idol Shocker

    It is no secret we're big American Idol fans, so, who shocked us that they didn't or did make it into the round of 36 last night:

    Shocked by failing to make it were Jamar Rogers (a lot!) and TK Hash (a little).

    Shocked that they made it:
    • Tatiana Del Toro
    • Nick Mitchell (aka Normun Gentul)
    More later

    Tuesday, February 10, 2009

    Eric Boehlert is a big fat liar cat

    Eric Boehlert, who passes for some kind of media critic at Media Matters (the left's hit group aimed at right-of-center journalists), has a response to an article in USA Today by conservative Jonah Goldberg. Godberg responds.

    In his piece, Boehlert complains that, basically, Goldberg is a big fat liar.

    Anyway, I sought to duplicate the work that Boehlert was incapable of doing, and in 5 minutes found these examples to support Goldberg's conclusions:

    Nov 11 2008, from WNBC's Gabe Pressman (a 60 year NYC reporting veteran):

    "Will FDR Inspire Obama? Obama calls for hope and courage like FDR," and "There is a striking similarity between the situation President-elect Obama faces and the crisis FDR confronted. And there are strong similarities between the personalities of these two leaders elected 75 years apart. Like Roosevelt, Obama is charismatic. He has a beguiling smile. His voice seduces listeners, just as Roosevelt's did."

    From the Chicago Tribune, how about some of Obama's own words, days after the election:

    "Want a glimpse into the future Barack Obama presidency? Take a look back to Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s first 100 days in the White House.During his “60 Minutes” interview Sunday, the president-elect was asked if he had been reading anything about Roosevelt and the Depression.Yes, he said. “There’s a new book out about FDR’s first 100 days. And what you see in FDR that I hope my team can emulate is not always getting it right, but projecting a sense of confidence and a willingness to try things and experiment in order to get people working again.”

    From the International Herald Tribune, just after the election:

    "Now the United States is about to get a new president who many people, including Charlie Peters, believe has the potential to be another Roosevelt. Like FDR, Barack Obama has shown an ability to inspire and instill hope, and he has also exhibited the keen intellect, canny political instincts and easy confidence that were hallmarks of Roosevelt."
    And, how can we forget the Time Magazine hagiography.

    Eric Boehlert, before you throw stones at Goldberg in a fruitless attempt to justify your own and the national press corps slurping at Obama's feet, perhaps you could do some actual research, rather than feign it.


    ...
    end
    ...

    Monday, February 9, 2009

    Senate Gives Finger to America

    The Senate today voted for cloture on the porkulus bill.

    Sadly, this rotten POS is going to cost us close to $10T over time in interest, assuming it's ever paid off.

    I don't really need to say anything more about this thing. It's a huge spending bill, and its impact on the economy will be small and delayed.

    It signals the most massive growth of government in our lifetime, and coupled with the ill considered and poorly planned bank bailout, will leave our children, their children, and their children in debt. It'll probably be used as an excuse to reduce social security and other retirement benefits to baby boomers and generations to come, and it will definitely be used as an excuse to cut defense spending.

    It's a massive assault on states and state's rights. A couple of Southern governors have expressed that they might not want all the strings attached to their money, Haley Barbour, Governor of MS, said:

    "It's not a possibility of strings being attached, it's a certainty ... and until we get a look at what finally passes and all of the implications, it is my belief that there may be some things that we'd be better off not to take."

    Mark Sanford, Governor of South Carolina, has similar concerns.

    They are the exception, as I expect Georgia will take the money.

    But, when these fairly conservative states recognize what a pig this becomes, and what amount of Federal control it requires, will they wise up and say "Enough!"?

    I don't know, but I wonder how long it will take for some states to realize that we have become one of states controlled by a strong and demanding central government, not of states, united.

    ...
    end
    ...

    Sunday, February 8, 2009

    Economics and Obama

    Gateway Pundit helps put the lie to President Obama's claims that "the tired old policies of the last 8 years" are responsible for the current mess and that this is the "worst economy since the great depression."

    Since those of us older than 40 are used to hearing these lies every 4 years from Democratic candidates, we have been through these all before. These are tactics used by Democrats to justify increased government spending and government involvement in your life, and to demonize conservative principles.

    If they told the truth, they would be forced to admit that "the worst economy since the great depression" occurred because of Jimmy Carter's policies, and that the best way to grow an economy is by supply-side tax rate cuts (see: Kennedy, Reagan, Bush).

    What these prove about President Obama is what we on the right tried to tell people prior to November 4th. This guy is not about "hope" or "change." He has dropped the "hope" meme (choosing, instead, "fear" and "catastrophe"), and the only change has been the level of corruption is back to Clintonian levels!

    Welcome back, Dems!

    Saturday, February 7, 2009

    The Arctic - Time for the United States to get militarily serious about it

    RADML David Gove, Oceanographer/Navigator of the Navy, has published an article in Proceedings, Arctic Melt: Reopening a Naval Frontier, which discusses the strategic impacts of melting ice in the Arctic.

    I am a global warming skeptic (that man is responsible), so, I looked for a political angle in the Admiral's writing, and there is none, just some thoughts for us to consider as the Arctic becomes another sea which is navigable year round, and exploitable as well.

    It's interesting, apparently this ocean has been navigable before, "Core samples from the Lomonosov Ridge suggest that some 55 million years ago semitropical waters rich in organic matter covered the Arctic basin, perfect conditions for the formation of vast hydrocarbon beds."

    Because the US has not ratified the latest Law of the Sea Treaty, we are being shut out of negotiations ongoing that will determine the future of many of those resources, which include 90B bbl of oil, and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas, not to mention vast mineral resources.

    So, it's a good read, if you can access the article (I believe it's on the free side of the USNI's web site).

    ...
    end
    ...

    More on the "Compromise"

    “This compromise greatly improves the bill,” said Senator Susan Collins (RINO, ME).

    That pretty much sums up just how rotten the Porkulus bill is. That some tinkering around the edges could greatly improve it shows just how much we need to get into this thing and fix it and change it's entire character from focusing on everyone's unfunded projects to what can really help the economy.

    What has happened with this bill, and, I guess, why a bureaucrat like Obama can actually think it's a good thing and immediately necessary, is that every project that has never made the cut when we thought (semi-) rationally about appropriations has been dredged up in an effort to get money moving quickly, and to prevent the time it would take to actually consider worthwhile projects that would similarly get people working.

    You know how this goes, because unless you are self-employed, you have seen this in big corporations or in the government. The end of the fiscal year approaches, and there is a big pot of money (I know in my old Corporate Behemoth it used to be capital dollars) left to spend, and you're told, "Spend it or lose it." Usually in the real world, there are worthwhile projects that you wanted to do, but probably either cut before or pared back, so this represents an opportunity to get those going again. In the government, it's an opportunity to do the same, but the projects usually should never have started in the first place (except in DoD, of course).

    At any rate, this Porkulus is the same thing, and we have President Obama believing that when he requested "shovel ready" projects, that was what he was going to get. Instead, he may have gotten a few (hundred) billion dollars worth of those, but he also got a ton of crap, too.

    I do not want to see this thing passed. If we were going to get some highway and construction projects moving quickly, and couple that with some serious tax reductions (reduce cap gains and the corporate tax rates, and even just making the Bush tax cuts permanent - check out the Senator Jim Demint, R-SC, American Options Plan), this might be more palatable. But, as it is, it is a bunch of pork that will not get mostly spent until 2010 and 2011 and the tax rebates are too weak to have any stimulative effect. So, by Nancy Pelosi's accounting, by this time next year, 5,000,000,000 (that's right 5B) Americans will be out of work.

    Here are a couple of other things I want you folks to read:
    • Mark Steyn on Obama - in which Steyn opines on the audacity of pork and hope
    • On NPR's Morning Edition yesterday, there was much discussion about how the Porkulus money should be spent and who should spend it. One thing is for sure, Democrats don't want YOU to make those decisions, you ignoramouses. Remember this Bill Clinton gem (on the surplus, oh...happy days!), "We could give it all back to you and hope you spend it right... But ... if you don't spend it right, here's what's going to happen. In 2013 -- that's just 14 years away -- taxes people pay on their payroll for Social Security will no longer cover the monthly checks... I want every parent here to look at the young people here, and ask yourself, 'Do you really want to run the risk of squandering this surplus?' "
    • Charles Krauthammer on how "Hope and Change" became "Disaster and Catastrophe"and the age of New Politics is really just the same old politics.
    • Heritage Foundation on why this didn't work for Japan in the 1990's and left them in a decade-long recession
    end...
    ...

    Friday, February 6, 2009

    We're screwed (well, your kids are)

    The Senate has reached a compromise on the porkulus bill. You can thank Susan Collins, Olympia Snowe, and the ever faithful Arlen Specter for this debacle. I blame Republicans because they should know better. We expect Democrats to spend like drunken sailors to buy future votes and increase their power. We don't need that from the GOP, we need adult leadership.

    Our GOP compromisers have saved about $100B off what the Senate was going to pass, but, it's the same as the House's and Carl Levin has promised to bring all the garbage that was cut back during conference.

    In a failed, but valiant effort, Senator John Thune (R. SD, the guy who beat Daschle, by the way) introduced an alternative bill which would have instead spent $936B on across the board tax relief for every middle-class family in America. But, it failed. So, instead of each family (making <$250K) getting $11,000 in immediate, and stimulative tax relief (or my alternative defense/aerospace plans), we will massively increase the size of government and make a whole bunch of new Federal programs while not getting enough stimulus to make much of a difference in the economy.

    Here's the list of the crap that got cut. Just imagine what is still left in this piece of crap.

    I hope this works, I doubt it will, and we've just dug an incredibly huge whole that no amount of defense cutting (and that's what the Dems will try to cut to pay for it) is going to get us out of it.


    end...
    ...

    Thursday, February 5, 2009

    If we must stimulate....let's do it like this...

    Men, if we're going to capitulate to spending $1T, let's do it as manly men, on stuff we know will actually stimulate the economy, provide good jobs to engineers and joe sixpacks alike, and make us all proud to be Americans again. So, here's Jay's plan for spending the Trillion bucks:

    • Defense Spending - there are numerous capital projects already in progress that could benefit from an injection of dollars - shipbuilding, fighters, new bombers that need to be delivered, maybe even a tanker decision could be made and the P8 replacement for the P3 sped up. We'd also need people to fly and man these and we, of course, could use more tanks, Hummers, and APC's. We also need to modernize our defense and intelligence satellite fleet, and we can probably make a military case for a space shuttle replacement, as well as building that missile defense system.

    If we built up our military again like we did in WW2 (without the actual deadly war), we would reap tremendous benefits, as all these projects will have secondary impacts on the economy, and will yield tremendous fringe benefits. Like, the Chinese will know not to mess with us, the terrorists will know we're not taking their crap, and the Iranians will realize that we will kick their ass.

    And, another place to help spend $1 TRILLION dollars is:

    • Space Exploration - if we can't make the military case for a shuttle replacement, let's make a national pride case for returning to the moon and going to Mars with men. We all know the great stuff the space program brought us - velcro, Tang, the $6M dollar man - let's repeat THAT example of spending, not the boring and failed New Deal.
    • Worthy transportation projects: Let's develop a workable SST, let's DO put more concrete on the ground for aircraft (those are called runways), and for automobiles (let's DO improve and expand the interstate highway system), and if the government must subsidize rail - let's do it in the form of high-speed rail connecting say BOS-NY-PHL-DC-ATL-MIA, and NYC-CHI-DEN-LA, and let's develop those flying cars finally!

    So, these are my ideas if we must spend this money, let's not waste it on crap like infrastructure and "green" technology and bailouts for banks and auto manufacturers, let's spend it on real stuff that makes us cool again.

    \end\

    500 Million Americans will lose their jobs....according to Nancy Pelosi

    It's a good thing there's a billion dollars in the Porkulus Package for the census, because Nancy Pelosi thinks 500 Million Americans are losing their jobs every month we don't pass the bill:




    What's worse? Nancy Pelosi not knowing that there aren't 500 Million people in North America, or the talking heads who refuse to point this out? Many have rightly said, what would happen if Sarah Palin said this?


    end...
    ...

    Wednesday, February 4, 2009

    Online petition opposing the porkulus bill

    Americans for Prosperity, a "Grassroots, free markets organization" is sponsoring and pledging to deliver an online petition opposing the "Stimulus" bill.

    Check it out and sign up.

    Also, check out AFP's web site to see what other work they are doing to encourage free market solutions to our nation's problems.

    ...end...

    Sunday, February 1, 2009

    Whelan on Daschle

    Ed Whelan over in the Corner at National Review online, says it better than I about Daschle,

    "According to the lead article in today’s Washington Post, Tom Daschle “waited nearly a month after being nominated to be secretary of health and human services before informing Barack Obama that he had not paid years of back taxes for the use of a car and driver provided by a wealthy New York investor.

    "If President Obama were really serious about ending business as usual, he would immediately withdraw the nomination of someone who was cheating big-time on his taxes and who didn’t level with Obama about the problem at the outset. Of course, if he were really serious about ending business as usual, he would never have selected for a major Cabinet position a former senator of no discernible talent who, while he was a senator, enabled his wife to leverage his status to become a super-lobbyist and who on leaving the Senate cashed in his access to his former colleagues for millions of dollars a year."

    Yesterday I provided this article about his and his wife's shady dealings in her position as an aviation industry lobbyist.


    end...

    Liberal commentators never cease to amaze me.

    Juan Williams thinks the Republicans are going to roll over for Daschle, and apparently, thinks the continued Obama administration snubbing its nose at its own rules will not impact them.

    He also thinks zero votes for the "stimulus" was bad politics.

    Mara Liassion, in a more brazen statement, thinks the offering of the Commerce Secretary job to NH Senator Judd Gregg, is a brilliant political move. I think it's ballsy and arrogant, but brilliant? No.

    All the GOP has to do to shut down this "brilliance" is say "No."

    end...
    ...

    Saturday, January 31, 2009

    Daschle Stinks to high heaven

    Yet another tax cheat is running into some hot water trying to get through his nomination.

    This time, it's Tom Daschle, former leader of the Senate's Dems. And, he owed over $130k in unreported taxes, until, of course, he had to come clean. As John Hineraker, at Powerline pointed out, this does have the side benefit of helping to collect a bunch of unpaid taxes.

    But, will we see a handful of Republicans again cave in to BHO's interest and confirm this cheat?

    For those who don't recall, Tom and Linda Daschle have a long history of questionable financial dealings, usually tied to Linda's position as an aviation industry lobbyist.

    Tom Daschle may be the most wonderful man in the history of the world to lead HHS, but, he's surely there's some other Liberal Democrat who doesn't carry the same stinking baggage as him.

    end...

    Not a time for profits?

    So, President Obama thinks now is "not the time for profits." The O admin also decided that Citibank's previously planned purchase of a new $50M corporate jet (retiring two older jets) was not in the best interest of...someone.

    A couple of questions on these:
    1. How many workers did it take to design, build, market, sale, and deliver that $50M aircraft? How many more $50M planes are not being delivered because recipients of the taxpayer's money are not allowed to either spend as they please, or carry through with previously (board-approved, most likely) plans? How many additional people will lose their jobs because of government meddling in public companies? Of course, the government didn't ask these questions (or didn't care) when they passed ridiculous laws like Sarbanes-Oxley, either, so why should they now, when WE MUST DO SOMETHING!
    2. Since these banks, etc, are publicly traded companies (in most cases), shouldn't their boards and shareholders be making these kinds of decisions and not (after the fact), the government?
    3. If now is not the time for profits, when is the time?
    4. Is this part of an Obama signal to all businesses, that if you make a profit, BEWARE! the government intends to get its hands on it somehow?
    As a stockowner, I happen to like profits. It makes the stock prices in my portfolio go up. As an employee of a public company, I like profits, it means we can invest in new technologies and products, and we can start projects to bring those things to market, we can hire more people to make them happen, and we can reward those people who excel with nice bonuses and pay raises.

    So, Barack Obama, I think now IS the time to make profits, but, I am a filthy, nasty capitalist pig.

    ...end...

    Friday, January 30, 2009

    Economic Tidbits

    While Washington fiddles over the porkulus bill before them, and President Obama and Chairpersons Reid and Pelosi march us towards depression, here's a caution from Dick Morris today about out hyper-inflationary future:

    "In the seven years between 2000 and 2007, the money supply rose from $600 billion to $800 billion. In 2008, alone, it more than doubled from $800 billion to $1.7 trillion! We cannot sustain this level of increase in the money supply without having way too much money chasing way too few goods and services, sending prices up into double digit inflation. While the economy is in shell shock, at the moment, we face deflation. But once it begins to come back and the dollars come out of hiding, we will find the resulting inflation intractable and very difficult to cure."

    In news closer to home, the CEO of AT&T (my employer) today asked the Board to not pay him a bonus for 2008, which they obliged. At the same time, he promised no management salary increases in 2009, but, the board did approve management bonuses, thus much, much reduced from previous years.

    ...end...

    Wednesday, January 28, 2009

    Congressman Tom Price - A Stand-up guy

    Yesterday, politico.com published this article about a conservative Georgia congressman defending the GOP congressional leadership.

    However, in their initial version of this, they attributed the quotes to my representative, Tom Price, instead of Phil Gingrey. I immediately fired off a missive to Congressman Price, so shocked was I that in perhaps the reddest district in Georgia he would say such a thing.

    Anyway, he was kind enough to reply today, which I do appreciate. Of course, Congressman Price laid a big fat kiss on Rush, "Rush Limbaugh is one of the country's strongest conservative voices, and I appreciate his work in making sure that Republicans return to the majority."

    So, Congressman, thank you, and I won't be making that primary challenge now.

    By the way, Gingrey was on all the big talkers today (Rush, Hannity, who knows who else) making his apologies.

    ...end...

    Tuesday, January 27, 2009

    Stimulus will stimulate nothing

    Is there any thinking person in America who actually believes that the proposed $850B "stimulus" package is going to do much to help this economy?

    Readthestimulus.org
    provides some snapshots of the bill, from the CBO's analysis. Whether you agree with the stuff that we're going to find in the bill (and I guarantee, we're going to find lots of egregious stuff), it is obvious that this bill isn't going to provide much of a stimulus for at least a year, if ever.

    I encourage everyone to read the CBO analysis, as its 18 page write-up is probably the easiest way to digest, in a summary, what this bill is all about. And, frankly, reading this analysis, the GOP had better come up with a way to fight this monster and keep it from happening. This bill is a waste of taxpayer's 'money, and I guarantee, it'll end up filled with pork in a vote buying effort.

    The Heritage Foundation also has some analysis of this pig, among their points:
    • This bill will cost over $10,000 for every family in America. Better to send every family a check for $10k - trust me, they will spend it better and it'll provide more stimulus than this pile of liberal doggerel.
    • The bill doubles federal spending on education. Liberals will say that either 1)we need the money to improve failing schools, or 2) the feds are doing such a good job with education, they should spend more. They'll say it with a straight face
    • A significant expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit. I will say that if you're poor (or make below about $40,000/year, and depending on how many kids you have) the EITC is a great thing. However, it goes largely to people who don't pay any income taxes. The EITC is a massive transfer payment program.
    If we really wanted to stimulate the economy (yes, I contend that President Obama et.al. do not give a rat's ass whether the economy is stimulated, they intend to consolidate power and votes in an old-fashioned vote buying scheme - making government your mommy), we would lower corporate tax rates, nearly eliminate the capital gains tax, make the Bush tax cuts permanent, and cut government spending, including some privitization of social security (don't think markets could use a massive injection of capital right about now???).

    Of course, that won't happen with this crowd in charge.

    Monday, January 26, 2009

    Twitter and other cool web stuff...

    Ok, I have discovered Twitter. While my Facebook introduction isn't new, my Twitter introduction is.

    In case you're not already tuned in to Twitter, it's the latest (ok, not the absolute latest, since they started a year ago) form of social networking, which basically let's you use short messages (Tweets, which are up to 140 characters, akin to the old SMS limits) to let people know what you're doing, where you are, or what you're thinking.

    You can also link your updates to your blog (look to the right). You can choose other people to follow, to see what they're thinking, doing, etc. Famous people, family, morons, you name it!

    We'll see how old it gets, as I am experimenting with Twitter now. The killer part of twitter is that you can send tweets from your cell phone, so, anytime you have an insightful thought, you don't really have to remember it to have it recorded for posterity.

    Of course, who wants all their thoughts recorded for posterity! That's the beauty, though, unless you're a complete fool, you can just record the interesting stuff!

    So, check it out, and see what all the fuss is about!

    In other news...

    This recent CIO magazine article takes a stab at predicting what the big web-technologies/sites of 2009 will be. Among their picks:
    • tv.com - owned now by CBS, it aims to compete with NBC Universal's and Fox's Hulu.com. If you're not checking out Hulu.com for some streaming video of tv shows and other stuff, you might try it. tv.com promises the same from CBS's library.
    • Qik - this one seems really cool. It's a site where you can send your cellphone video live, or archive it to the site, Facebook, or even your blog. I am going to have to check out my cellphone camera and figure out how to do this. Look for some lame video of my dogs soon!
    • Boxee - looks like they're trying to be the first out of the box to be an aggregator of on-line video. A way to organize all those online video sites.
    That should get you started!

    ...end...

    Crook Geithner Confirmed - UPDATED!!!!!

    The tax cheat, Timothy Geithner, will be our new Treasury Sec'y.

    34 voted against.

    UPDATED:

    Hotair has the names, of those voting yes, these were the Republicans who apparently think it's ok to be a tax cheat:

    Corker
    Cornyn
    Crapo
    Ensign
    Graham
    Gregg
    Hatch
    Shelby
    Snowe
    Voinovich

    2 Dems voted against:
    Byrd
    Harkin


    ...end...

    Sunday, January 25, 2009

    Rush Responds to Obama

    Rush Limbaugh provided a response to President Obama's targeting of him today in a response to National Review's Byron York.

    Key quote:

    "Put simply, I believe his stimulus is aimed at re-establishing "eternal" power for the Democrat Party rather than stimulating the economy because anyone with a brain knows this is NOT how you stimulate the economy. If I can be made to serve as a distraction, then there is that much less time debating the merits of this TRILLION dollar debacle."


    ...

    Saturday, January 24, 2009

    Obama shoots at Limbaugh. Misses.

    In a meeting with lawmakers, Obama chose Friday afternoon to remind Republican leaders that he "won" and that they had best not "...just listen to Rush Limbaugh and [expect to] get things done."

    In an interestingly-timed (Friday after Rush's show aired) jab, Obama signaled that he understands that Conservative thought leadership and backbone will come primarily from people like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity, in addition to organizations like The Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute, magazines like National Review and Human Events - but, his primary foe from the Right is going to be Limbaugh.

    I think it's no coincidence that the timing was as the weekend approached, and after Rush had spent the previous two nights in an exclusive, extensive interview on Sean Hannity's new FoxNews show, where Rush made it clear that conservative lawmakers should not offer compromise to Obama's leftist, statist, ideology. Rush demonstrated that he knows what the Democrats are up to, and Obama fears this reaching the maximum number of Americans, or getting any traction in the press because GOP lawmakers oppose him at every left-wing opportunity. Obama fears Rush (and Hannity to a lesser extent, I believe), because Rush can articulate opposition position, to wit:

    • "I think the intent here is to create as many dependant Americans as possible looking to government for their hope and salvation. If he gets nationalized health care, I mean, it's over, Sean. We're never going to roll that back."
    • "I don't know where what he wants to try has worked. It didn't work in the Soviet Union. It doesn't work in China. They're having to become like us in China in order to survive. It hasn't worked in Cuba. It hasn't worked! It didn't work when the Pilgrims arrived. They tried socialism."
    • "The New Deal didn't work. You know, Hoover was president through the Depression for one year. FDR prolonged the depression for seven or eight years."
    • "What made this country great is the recognition by our Founders that individuals are all created equal, endowed with certain inalienable rights: life, liberty, pursuit of happiness. If you look at the Democrat Party, are they for life? Folks, they're the party of abortion. Liberty? Uh, these are the people that are trying to pass any law they can to restrict where you can go, what you can do when you get there, where you can eat, what you can eat, what you can smoke, when you can't smoke, what kind of baby you can have, all these things."
    • "What we need to be doing is Reagan. Very simple. He made the people of this country understand that its greatness is due to them. They're the ones that make the country work. Not policies, not laws, not committees in Congress and so forth, and not cult heroes or personalities, but individual freedom"
    • "And Colin Powell says, 'Yeah, the Republican Party should stop listening to Limbaugh.' Well, excuse me. We haven't pulled the party to the right at all. This party has gone to the left; it's gone to the center. We haven't done this. They got the candidate they wanted."
    • "I never hear Democrats talking about walking across the aisle. I never see any of them praise each other or brag about the fact that they do it. They brag about the Republicans that they destroy. They brag about the Republican bills, legislation that they defeat. The people that are running our party now have such a defeatist inferiority complex. They want to be accepted by people that hate 'em. They want to be accepted by people that despise 'em. It makes no sense to me. "
    • "It wasn't six months ago that the Democrats were out ripping Bush for deficit spending. It was horrible; it was rotten. Now, of course, the question is, 'Can we spend it fast enough to save America?' It's a bill of goods, and a lot is going to depend on how long the media sticks with this. I think they can't let him fail. And there are enough Americans who are simple sponges that watch news twice a week, believe what they see, and are done with it."
    Read the whole thing and visit some of those linked sites for conservative, free-market based alternatives to what the Left wants to do this country, which is seize power permanently, while bankrupting our economy.

    Whining About Obama, or Welcome to France

    I have recently joined Facebook. I did this to follow my kids around, but, have found it, as others have, to be a fun way to reconnect with old friends. One of the amazing things I have discovered, though, is how many of my (formerly intelligent) college friends have turned into Obamaniacs. These people weren't indoctrinated into Liberal theology at college, since they all went to a Southern, conservative-dominated engineering school. I thought most of these folks were thinking people, who would apply logic and reason to their political views. Somehow, they have been duped, conned, or lost their ability to think rationally. I blame 8 years of constant attacks by the mainstream media, weariness with the war, the downright gloomy economy, and in many cases, a healthy dose of white guilt. Heck, if you weren’t too sure in your beliefs to begin with, what Obama is selling would seem pretty darn good, I suppose.

    But, what, exactly, is Obama selling?

    Dick Morris has it pretty much figured out, as he paints a pretty bleak picture of Obama's plans to turn us into France. Unfortunately, I believe there are many Americans who see the Western European democratic social-welfare state (see paragraph one) as some kind of ideal to which we should aspire. After all, isn’t France the land of great wine, tasty cheese and some wonderful existentialists?

    Why, yes it is. But, it is also, as Homer Simpson informs, the land of “cheese eating surrender monkeys” as it’s most recent wartime past is marked by defeats, usually requiring the American fighting man to bail them out. France is also suffering from a disturbing demographic trend, in which it is turning into a Muslim country. Because of Western-style birth control and attitudes about children in general, to continue to grow their economy and fill low-end jobs, the French have embraced unfettered immigration, and, in their case, much of it has come from African Muslims. Thus, we ultimately get things like the Paris riots of a couple of years ago. In a country we like to idolize as some kind of “thinking man’s paradise” there is actually a native population just as concerned about the country’s make-up as us rednecks are about ours. Hence, Sarkozy strikes a chord.

    To our own Liberal elites, it’s not so much what France has become that appeals to them, it is the way France got there. Essentially making itself a socialist state and putting the reins of industry into the hands of elite policy makers. For Liberals, it is about power. It is about proving they really are smarter than the rest of us, and that state run economies have only failed in the past because they haven’t run them. For them, the current global (and American) economic situation provides an awesome opportunity.

    History means nothing to them. They don’t care that every socialist utopia was a failure. They don’t care that FDR’s “New Deal” or LBJ’s “New Society” were abject failures. They have actually spent 70 years trying to sell FDR as the saviour of the Depression (perhaps Hitler more accurately deserves that title, or Hirohito, since he managed to get the U.S. into WW2), and now, they actually, with a straight face, suggest that Obama will follow FDR’s model and do for us, what FDR did for 1930's America? Unless Obama has a World War up his sleeve, we’re doomed to economic rough times for at least a few more years.

    For those of you who voted for, and support Obama, I only ask that you replace your emotional cap with a thinking man’s cap and start asking where his policies will take us, how comfortable you are with the people who are going to be managing what will become a state-run economy, and whether you are willing to consign your children to lives of weak, but predictable growth, where our personal freedoms, tied as they are to our economic freedom, slowly deteriorate, and our place as the world’s leader is supplanted by China.

    A great president told us that “government isn’t the answer to the problem, it is the problem,” and that is just as true today is it was in 1981.

    Friday, January 23, 2009

    Change has come, updated

    Barack Obama promised change.

    So far, things have changed. He has gotten at least one tax cheat, Timothy Geithner, confirmed for his cabinet where Bill Clinton had to withdraw nominations for similar (actually lesser) indiscretions. And, this is for the man who will lead the IRS.

    Good work, Barack!

    In an update, Barack Obama signed an Executive Order Wednesday putting into place new ethics rules that would greatly limit the ability for lobbyists to enter his administration, and for former Obama-admin people to work for lobbyists. Obama said, "The way to make government responsible is to hold it accountable."

    However, that lasted until today, when the Deputy Sec-Def designate was given an exemption.

    Hillary Clinton, of course, was confirmed, despite apparent conflicts of interests with foreign donations to the (Bill) Clinton library, and, Eric Holder will be confirmed despite either being a liar or an idiot.

    Oh well. The Obama administration is going to hold their people to the same ethical standards as Nancy Pelosi's Congress.

    Monday, January 19, 2009

    Miracles

    Some of my email readers (yes, there are some, mostly family!) took slight issues with my characterization of US Air 1549 as "not a miracle."

    Dictionary.com's salient definitions are:
    1. an effect or extraordinary event in the physical world that surpasses all known human or natural powers and is ascribed to a supernatural cause.
    2. such an effect or event manifesting or considered as a work of God.
    I think 1) is the one in play here, and, I just don't think this event is something we can ascribe to the direct hand of God. I think God was involved in helping Chesley Sullenberger hone his talents, but, God nothing extraordinary on the Hudson (it is normally quite calm), bird strikes are quite common in aircraft, and flight attendants are well trained as a norm. I don't find the passengers bahavior that unusual, certainly not miraculous.

    Parting the Red Sea, walking on water, feeding thousands with two loaves of bread, raising the dead. Those things are miracles, surpassing all known human or natural powers. Landing a plane safely on water, while a fantastic achievement, is a human achievement, accomplished by humans, granted, yes, with their God-given skills, but human nonetheless. Chesley Sullenberger and the people responsible for this can (and should) give credit to their God.

    But, it's not a miracle.

    Don't...

    Friday, January 16, 2009

    US Air 1549

    Being a bit of an aviation buff, I was amazed at the successful water landing this week of US Air's flight 1549, an Airbus A320, bound from Laguardia to Charlotte.

    My first thought was that there had never been a successful water landing of a commercial airliner before, which was wrong, as this Wikipedia entry proves. Actually, I am surprised, and pleased, that there have been so many successful water landings.

    Of course, that should not take away from the amazing airmanship of US Air's pilot, Chesley Sullenberger, an Air Force Academy grad, and former F-4 pilot, and, apparently, quite the accomplished pilot and safety expert. The passengers and crew of US Air 1549 could hardly have been in better hands. As the NTSB investigates, everyone fully expects they will determine a double bird strike took out both engines. Like water landings, you might be surprised how many bird strikes there are.

    I don't believe this was a "miracle" as some people want to call it. Nearly all airline disasters require a sequence of unfortunate events to cause them. In this case, that sequence of unfortunate events was followed by a series of fortunate events - the skill of the pilot, the professionalism of the crew, the design and flying characteristics of the aircraft, the proximity to the glassy Hudson, the landing site itself close to ferrys and watercraft, the calmness of the passengers.

    One other thing this story proves, once again, is that the press is filled with idiots. I listened to some of the NTSB's initial press conference today, and I swear, the people covering this should really spend 5 minutes educating themselves about aviation.

    Don't...

    313 Ship Navy? Never going to happen.

    National Defense Magazine this month discusses the Navy's efforts to get to 313 ships. Their conclusion: It ain't gonna happen. In fact, they think the odds are quite good that we're headed down from the 280 odd ships we have today, and they recommend going from 14 to 10 SSBN's and reducing the number of carriers to 10.

    I have been discussing this with some surface warfare friends of mine, and they agree that efforts like the LCS, the DDG-1000, and the CG(X) are all flawed. The Navy has serious issues with costs and delivery schedules on these projects. Interesting that, just like the Seawolf, the SWO's are going to get 3 DDG-1000's. The LCS, slated for a class of 55, is in serious danger, as well.

    Is the Burke design so old that it can't be used again? Are our enemies so sophisticated that the core platforms (hull design and propulsion plant) can't be reused? Just a thought.

    What is to blame? Well, just as most I/T projects are derailed by an inability to hold the line on new requirements after coding begins, the Navy has been unable to restrain itself in issuing new requirements after construction has begun. The Navy is right that it is impossible anymore to wait until a design is finalized before beginning construction, but... a little discipline has to be exercised.

    For example:
    On the Seawolf, only about 6 percent of the design was complete before construction began in the late 1980s. About 68,000 changes were made on the ship as it went through the construction process. When EB later set out to build the Virginia-class submarine, its engineers had completed about 50 percent of the design before bending steel. That ship experienced 12,000 changes.

    This is all pretty basic stuff, whether you're delivering custom software, integrating large information systems, or building ships.

    Amazing that in a $500B DoD budget, we can't get but $15B for shipbuilding.

    Anyway...

    Wednesday, January 14, 2009

    Saturday, January 10, 2009

    Obamania having an impact on Americans perceptions

    Rasmussen Reports that Americans are warming to the idea of more government intervention in the economy. Some highlights from recent Rasmussen polling:
    • 45% of voters nationwide fear the government will do too much in response to the economic crisis while 44% are concerned that the government won’t do enough. In September, the numbers were 63% too much, 25% too little.
    • The one constant throughout, however, is belief in the power of tax cuts to help the economy. In every survey conducted over the past few months, a majority of voters have favored tax cuts and tax cuts have consistently been more popular than stimulus plans involving new government spending. The latest findings show that 55% of voters believe any economic recovery plan approved by Congress should include tax cuts.

    So, Obama is selling the idea that government is the solution, the media is contributing to Obama as the "New, New Deal" savior, and Americans are buying that government is the answer.

    Although most Americans understand that tax cuts should be included in any recovery plan, my fear is they are only thinking of the pittance they will get, and are buying into the "tax the rich" scheme that Obama is peddling. As I have posted recently, we need big, bold tax cuts, for individuals, for corporations, and for investors. The overall economy won't benefit from government "investment," "stimulus," or other "infrastructure" spending. This is only taking money out of the economy from one place (taxpayers or investors) and transferring it to another (see this Heritage org piece).

    Conservatives and Libertarians need to band together to return our nation to fiscal responsibility and sound tax policy. We are rapidly devolving to a Western European style welfare state and a future of low (or no) growth, and will be likewise ceding our leadership place in the world to the Chinese.

    nothing more to

    Discovering the fate of Hunley nears....

    The mystery remains on what happened on board the CSS Hunley the night it sunk the Housatonic. Although this article doesn't shed much light, are historians approaching the conclusion that the Hunley's crew died from lack of oxygen?

    Big Hollywood. Thank you Andrew Breitbart

    Andrew Breitbart has started a new Conservative/Libertarian site for the Left Coast, Big Hollywood. I encourage you all to check it out.

    Warning - Liberals will be incensed, so visit at your own risk.

    No more to read...

    George H.W. Bush Commissioning

    This weekend, in Newport News, the final Nimitz-class carrier, the George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) is being commissioned. It's a pretty big deal, with the namesake, the President, pretty much every other Bush alive, and Greta Van Susteren in town for it. It's hard to believe it's been over 30 years since the Nimitz was commissioned, but, alas, it has been.

    If you're like me, and you think that naming vessels after living people is bad luck, go read how Bubblehead is lamenting the announcement that we're going to name a Virginia-class SSN after John Warner. Lots of good comments over there.

    I'd like to get away from this practice, and I agree with Bubblehead that we could have honored Warner with a destroyer or something else...

    At any rate, read about the H.W. Bush here.

    Friday, January 9, 2009

    Posting

    Wow! It's been over a month since I last posted.

    Sorry, if you're a regular reader. Christmas was a busy season around our house, and I have been pretty busy at work preparing for a potential calamity.

    Plus, the guys at The Sub Report and our other submarine bloggers keep a good job keeping you abreast of submarine issues, and Obama has basically become Bill Clinton III, so, what more is there to say about him until he actually starts governing?

    Since it's about a week away, all I will say to you is: BEWARE!!!!!!!!!!

    The Left is in control, and rather than do those things that will actually get this economy out of the mess it's in, we have Obama proclaiming that only the government can save us. If that's the way we're going to treat this economy, we're all screwed.

    We'll get a bunch of roads out of it, we'll get another "Stimulus" check, and the unemployment rate will keep rising, and growth, if it ever returns, will be stymied by the massive deficits we are ringing up.

    When I have more time, I'll discuss, and point you all to links that blow away the myth of FDR as savior of the Depression. Passive students of history know WW2 saved us from the depression, and that the statist policies of Hoover from 29-32 and FDR from 32-40 were abject failures.

    So, what will save us this time?

    As I have said before, we need massive reductions in marginal tax rates - FOR EVERYONE - but mostly for the BASTARD RICH. We need the people who have real money to invest, to invest.

    We also need corporate tax rates lowered, we need cap gains rates cut in half, and we need the government to stop pushing the phony-baloney global warming crap, put in place incentives to drill for oil, and allow the automakers to go into bankruptcy, if that's what their business model leads them to.

    Without those steps, or some portion of them, we will see a prolonged recession, more unemployment, and a weakened economy when it finally does turn around.

    So there.