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    Wednesday, October 29, 2008

    Polls and Advance Voting Thoughts

    Today, according to Drudge, Rassmussen will release a new poll showing a 3 point Obama lead.

    Gallup has it at 2.

    Despite this being from the Washington Post, it's a good read on why the polls all differ widely.

    Remember when you read these "margin of error" numbers in these polls, these do not mean that the national race could be anywhere from x to y, it means, within that sampling of people, the margin of error for when they vote could actually be from x to y. In other words, if a particular poll has it O -52, M- 42 with a 4 pt MOE, that means that when that group of people go to vote, they could end up with a tally of O-48 and M-46, giving the MOE that way, or O-56, M-38 going the other. That MOE is specific to that polling group. That's why we see these wide variations. It's all based on who answers the phone. That's whay another poll can have it O-49, M-47 with a 3pt MOE. This is why pollsters get paid big bucks by campaigns, to choose polling groups that most closely resemble the electorate and to apply their voting models to those samples. It's an art, not a science. Remember that.

    Advance Voting
    If my experience with advance voting is any indication, people are energized about this election and it will be a record turnout. But, will it also be a record turnout in traditionally Republican quarters? Hard to say, but, again, in my community, the advance voters were out, and these are pretty staunch conservatives. But, hard to say. I tend to think advance/early voters fall into 2 categories - those who follow politics and would vote anyway, and those committing fraud.

    So, my guess is the early/advance voting numbers are no indication of new voters, but of the energy of those who are voting. I'd say both sides seem pretty energized.

    With Obiden slowly lowering the definition of rich (now, according to Joe, it's $150k, will it be $100k by Monday, and $50k by Wednesday????), and with new revelations each day of some whacky socialist idea Obama holds, we could see swing voters starting to swing back right, as they realize their pocketbooks will be the first thing socialized in an Obamanation. Then, it will be their guns, then their land, and eventually, their thoughts will be captives to the Dear Leader.

    I don't really believe that, but, can you trust this guy?


    1 comment:

    reddog said...

    Keep refreshing Drudge. His words will provide you comfort for one more week.

    The Turd Blossom says that McCain may still win but that he doesn't see how. I think that it's possible too but not likely.

    The popular vote will be narrower than the electoral college. McCain is closing the gap nationally but most of that, I feel, is in the deep South and old border war states, where his victory has never been in doubt. Forida, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Obama needs one. McCain needs all three. Hat Trick, baby! Can he do it? That's the question.

    The stakes are down. The bookies are giving long shot odds. Feed the two studs into the gate and let them run.