- Most obviously, are blacks. They have a legitimate right to be excited about Obama. He is an historic candidate, and happens to also represent the views they have come to support (with little to show for it) over the years, that is, typical liberal democrat fare. He's going to exceed the traditional 90/10 split for Dems. What is important isn't so much the percentage (it might be 95% for O), as the actual numbers who vote.
- The intelligentsia (of all races) - this demo has been trending Dem for some time, and will remain a reliable voting bloc for Obama. These people are setting more of the agenda for the Democrats these days, and they have become an integral part of the democratic war machine. In case you're interested, Bill Ayers is in this demo.
- Hispanics - I expect we'll still see Hispanics vote in a majority bloc for Obama, but, they are a big question mark with Obama. There is latent hostility between Hispanics and Blacks, and McCain has been much more friendly to Hispanics than most other Republicans would have been. However, the immigration debate will hurt republicans with this demo this year, and the downscale demography favors Obama. But, in what numbers will they vote?
- Youth seeking change - Expect Obama to rack up huge majorities in this demo. They want change, and because of their youth, they're largely too uninformed to realize that Obama isn't about change, he's about Liberalism. Those that do know that - are either Democratic party activists, or Republicans. But, how many will actually vote?
- College educated whites, who are not part of the Intelligentsia - this is a group that in the past has been reliably Republican, but has begun trending dem anyway. Barack gives this group a chance to assuage their white guilt, and they may be the demo that actually puts him over the top.
I think Obama is going to get the same number of votes as Kerry in the Intellgentsia demo, and may fare about the same in Hispanics (but, I think the overall number will skew lower). So,the big questions are how many more blacks are going to vote, how many more college students, and how do those guilty white people break.
He's going to lose votes in some important demos - working class whites most notably.. I don't think there are actually enough of 1,4, and 5 to swing states like NC or FL, but their could be enough of 1 and 5 to switch VA. However, his lack of connection to white working class voters will hurt him in OH, PA, MI - traditional Dem strongholds. Can Ed Rendell get out the vote and deliver PA? Can the Detroit machine get out the vote in Michigan?
I don't think the path is as easy as Barack's people think.